Hot Take: Em Adler, Writer at The Next, with March Madness Bracket Predictions

In this episode, Jessica Luther interviews Em Adler, writer at The Next, a 365 women's basketball newsletter. They discuss Em's predictions for the NCAA women's basketball tournament.

This episode was produced by Tressa Versteeg. Shelby Weldon is our social media and website specialist. Burn It All Down is part of the Blue Wire podcast network.

Transcript

Jessica: Welcome to Burn It All Down, the feminist sports podcast you need. Jessica here, and today I am thrilled to be joined by Em Adler, a reporter for The Next Hoops. You've probably heard me say on the show that I'm a huge fan of their daily briefing emails. They’re good and smart and funny. Em also reports for Duke's independent student paper, the Chronicle, and we are here, Em, to break down the women's bracket for what we're allowed to call March Madness now. So, I am so thrilled to have you here. Welcome to Burn It All Down.

Em: It’s an absolute pleasure to be here. I've been a longtime listener, long-time fan, and it's kind of surreal to be talking to you.

Jessica: Well, I want to start with, of course, let's talk number ones. South Carolina, number one overall. People might remember they lost the Stanford last year in the Final Four; Stanford who went on to win the whole thing. Then we have NC State, Stanford and Louisville, which…Maybe we should start there. The big discussion on ESPN at the time, Louisville versus Baylor. Do you think that Louisville deserved this number one spot? 

Em: And then I think it makes sense. I think Baylor has been incredible down the stretch. But now the committee, at least they say that they don't weigh more recent games more than games at the beginning of the season. So if you're just looking at it that way, Louisville has just been pretty much dominant for most of the year outside of the loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and they blew up hugely to NC State in Raleigh. You know, aside from those games, actually they’re deserving of a 1-seed.

Jessica: And then the other big talk of the number ones is NC State. They are playing in Bridgeport, Connecticut in that portion of the bracket, which means that they're basically playing, if they make it to the third round, which we all assume they will, they will basically be on a home court for UConn, who is number two in that section of the bracket. And Carolyn Peck was saying on ESPN that she'd be pissed if she was NC State's coach. What do you think about that one? 

Em: I understand why you’d be pissed, just in terms of, you know, you're playing away games. It’s Bridgeport, it’s in Connecticut, UConn’s gonna be playing home games the entire time they're there. From a seating perspective though, I mean, everything about the tournament makes sense. South Carolina’s your number one, two is Stanford, three is NC State, four is Louisville. That's been what the people have basically had for the better part of like three months, and everything flows from there. UConn makes sense as a number six seed, and that's right where they are with NC State. That makes perfect sense to me, just in terms of seating. And not only that – NC State's path to the elite eight is frankly probably the easiest of any 1-seed. They already beat Kansas State by close to 30 points earlier in the season. You know, Notre Dame beat them about a month ago, but Notre Dame or Oklahoma, those matchups are not hard for them.

Jessica: Okay. So that's interesting. See, thanks for bringing the nuance here. Let's talk about like the overall bracket in general. I was wondering if you were surprised by anyone who made it in, disappointed? Even like with the seating itself. Like, surprises, disappointments? How did you feel about the overall bracket itself?

Em: I didn't find that there were too many upsets or surprises among the bracket in general. Missouri State being included surprised me. They had a decent net rating, advanced stats, but now their net though isn't great. And neither is their quadrant one wins. They've looked pretty uncompetitive nationally since their best player went down in December. They only finished third in the MVC. DePaul limped to the finish line. I don't think Villanova's that good. Look, I love Aneesah Morrow and Maddy Siegrist, but the biggies probably should've gotten like two minutes instead of four. [Jessica laughs] Northwestern’s a bit of a surprise absence, given how well they played for a stretch, and Veronica Burton;s been, oh, probably the second best guard in the country this year. 

Jessica: Oh, wow. Okay. Is Missouri State…They’re playing Florida State in the plan?

Em: They’re playing in Stanford’s region.

Jessica: Yes. Florida State is my alma mater. That's like the one time where I care about the team. [laughs] I was wondering like, can we talk about Cinderellas? Chantel Jennings at The Athletic, her big Cinderella is Indiana. I think she's betting on them possibly making it all the way to the Final Four. 

Em: Does a three seed count as a Cinderella?

Jessica: I don't know. I don't know. So, who are you thinking? What teams should we be…Especially, you know, this year you can actually fill out brackets. There’s actual bracket challenges for the women's side of the tournament. What teams should people maybe be betting on that they haven't so far? 

Em: So, there's definitely a lot of early upsets possible. As far as they can get deep, just the top of the field is so good this year. But if you want some weird picks, UCF in Bridgeport, their defense is one of the best in the country. And I don't think they'll do it, but they could very well upset UConn in the second round and just go from there. Princeton’s a great team, and Bridgeport’s upset city, really.

Jessica: You really…Okay. 

Em: FGCU out of the Spokane region could make a run, sure. As a 12th seed, they’re pretty solidly under-seeded.

Jessica: I like that idea of UConn being upset in the second round. I feel like all these casual women's basketball haters will be so confused if UConn goes out in the second round of the tournament. [laughs] That won't meet their narratives in any way at all. Okay. So that's really interesting. You've already mentioned a few, but are there specific players that you are interested in seeing this postseason?

Em: I mean, all of them, really. [laughter] I mean, just to run through the field of player of the year candidates…Well, it's not candidates. It’s Aliyah Boston to walk. I mean, watch South Carolina because South Carolina’s incredible and Aliyah Boston is insane. I mean, just based on the matchups, I'd be shocked if they didn't meet Caitlin Clark in the Greensboro elite eight. And Greensboro against Coliseum, that's going to be an incredible matchup. South Carolina’s going to win by like 15, but that's still going to be super fun. 

Jessica: I feel like all the narratives have been leading to Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston meeting in the postseason. Like, we deserve that after everything we've heard this year. [laughs]

Em: Just like the narratives work for UConn being in Bridgeport, even though it's number six makes sense. I think Iowa at number eight makes perfect sense, but it's still very convenient to have that matchup. Looking over to the Spokane region, Cameron Brink, the Stanford center, she was third on my player of the year ballot this year. I mean, she's just been incredible. And they're basically going to run into a bunch of teams that are going to have some strong interior defense for them to play against. Georgia Tech has maybe the best interior defense in the country. Virginia Tech has the SEC player of the year starting at center, or Maryland you got Angel Reese. Then you're running into Texas, which just throws 6’4” after 6’4” body at you. And then there's the Bridgeport region. I mean, obviously Paige Bueckers has probably worked up into the 30s in terms of her minutes limit. So, you know, if she can go, then yeah, she can go.

Jessica: Yeah. Yeah. That's so interesting. I just realized today…I just feel like my whole life I'm behind on everything right now, but there are games here in Austin! [laughs] I gotta go! I just realized that today.

Em: Yeah, the first game in Austin between Utah and Arkansas, I mean, that's gonna be a barn burner. That's two teams that I don't know if they lead their conferences in three point shooting, but those are teams that take a high volume. They take some fun shots. They take them deep.

Jessica: You're so good at this. Tell me more about what first round and maybe even predicting second round games people should be watching, starting Friday, running through Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. Tell me some first and possible second round matches that we should tune in for.

Em: The thing I like a lot about the first round of this tournament is there's just a lot of upsets that I can see happening. Honestly, the only 7-seed I see advancing past a 10 is UCF, and I've got…A lot of people are going to pick them to get upset by Florida. You know, in order of likelihood, probably Creighton over Colorado, Arkansas, over Utah, South Dakota over Ole Miss, for once, I’d bet on. Those are going to be fun. Close games? Over Greensboro, the 8-9 Miami-South Florida. That’s also going to be close. It's not going to be fun. It's going to be an assault on the notion of basketball. [Jessica laughs] Her Hoop Stats predicts that as a one possession game, so kudos to committee for having it as an 8-9. They also had that both teams would score around 55 points. 

Jessica: Wow. Okay.

Em: They get that through brute force and smothering defense. That's gonna be a very unique matchup. And I mean, there's other upsets across the board that are more than possible. There's an 11-seed play in that Greensboro regional between Dayton and DePaul, which, I mean, everyone should watch that one. That's going to be really fun. And they can both definitely beat the 6-seed Georgia. I would expect an 11 over 6 upset for Princeton over Kentucky, unless the Wildcats are still shooting the lights out. I just don't expect them to get past the first round.

Jessica: Wow. All right. 

Em: I mean, there's just some long shots that are more than possible. SFA could do something against UNC. That's 12 over 5. FGCU over Virginia Tech is a really obvious 12 over 5 I know a lot of people are picking. I don't see it, but I do think it's more than possible. Some super long shots: you got an 11 over 6 if Villanova beats BYU, 13 over 4 in Buffalo-Tennessee, 12 over 5 in UMass-Notre Dame. And then that same region it's entirely possible you got a 13 over 4 with IUPUI-Oklahoma. 

Jessica: I love this. I hope there's tons of upsets. It's really amazing that the women's game is here at this point that we can even be having a conversation like this. 

Em: As an independent journalist, the only thing I root for is chaos.

Jessica: [laughs] Yeah. Fair enough. I'm going to ask for Amira, how do you think LSU is going to do her cousin? Her cousin, Alexis Morris, is their big guard. 

Em: Her cousin’s Alexis Morris?!

Jessica: Mm-hmm. So, Amira goes to tons of LSU game. She trucks it to Baton Rouge. Give me a rundown on what you think we should expect from LSU. 

Em: The first round matchup is against Jackson State, who won the SWAC this year. Jackson State is super fun. Their center, Michelle Williams, is a super fun player, but that's not going to get them too much trouble. Ohio State, who should probably waltz past Missouri State or Florida State, whichever one wins that plan, that’s going to be an interesting matchup. Ohio State plays a certain style. They play fast both in terms of overall pace and in terms of the half-court pace. And they run most of their offense basically through the combo guard, Jacy Sheldon, or their wing, Taylor Mikesell. So if the name sounds familiar to some people, that's because she's been around for a while. She was at Oregon last year, which was a surprise transfer out of Oregon. And it was a surprise transfer into Oregon that year from Maryland where she played for a couple of years. 

Jessica: Okay.

Em: They shoot really well. They spaced the floor well, and they play together pretty well. So that's gonna be an interesting matchup. It's a very styles make fights sorta deal. LSU should probably win that one. And then you run into Texas, which I think is a really bad matchup for LSU. [laughs] 

Jessica: Hmm. Okay. So that's as far as we're going. That’s what I could give you. [laughs]

Em: Well, if they beat Texas, they got Stanford, which, you know, godspeed to you.

Jessica: Yes. True. All right, so let's talk to the end of all of this. April 1st, we get to the Final Four. I just want to tell everyone that will be at 7 and 9:30pm eastern on ESPN. Are we going to see four #1 seeds in Minneapolis? 

Em: I would say that's the most likely outcome just given they're the ones seeds for a reason. I think that it's more likely than not just given how most years go. I looked at this a little while ago, but there's only been four years on record – and the tournament's been around since ’81 – there’s only four years on record that all four #1 seeds made it to the Final Four. 

Jessica: Oh, wow. 

Em: Yeah. I want to say it was in ’88, and then was also in ’12, ’15 and ’18. So it's more likely than not that one or two of these 1-seeds aren’t going to make it. And obviously you're looking at UConn as a possible upset spoiler, Indiana's an interesting matchup for NC State out of Bridgeport. Like I said, that's upset city. Stanford and South Carolina have been so dominant, it’s really hard to see them not advancing unless South Carolina shoots like it did against Kentucky in the SEC championship. And Iowa just, you know, has one of those games where you just can't stop them. 

Jessica: Yeah. 

Em: Louisville or Baylor out of Wichita. I think the lower seeds of Wichita are a little weaker, but you know, Baylor is a 2-seed. They’re as strong as any 1-seed on a good day. You know, South Carolina and Stanford make a lot of sense to me, and then either Baylor or Louisville out of Wichita. And Bridgeport, honestly any of the top 3 seeds. 

Jessica: Who do you have? Do you have a prediction for who's going to be cutting down the nets after the championship game? Which is Sunday, April 3rd, 8:00pm on ESPN.

Em: I mean, it's gotta be South Carolina, right? 

Jessica: All right!

Em: I can hear an argument for Stanford. But it's gotta be South Carolina. 

Jessica: Okay. There, y'all heard it. As you get your brackets ready, you heard it from Em, who knows obviously an incredible amount about this. Em, thank you. Is there anything else that we should know about this tournament going into it?

Em: I don't think anything that I haven’t mentioned so far. Yep. You can catch all of our coverage where I write over at thenexthoops.com. Our work is totally free and open to see, but it is possible because of the generous subscribers that we have. We have so many beats across the country and so many sites and every one of the Final Four sites we are going to be covering.

Jessica: Yeah. The Next Hoops is just wonderful. Like, the extensive coverage is incredible. People should absolutely subscribe to it. And where can people find you, Em, out on the internet?

Em: So, like I said, people can find me at thenexthoops.com. As you mentioned, I do the daily briefing, generally a daily morning newsletter just recapping yesterday’s scores, trying to tier off the games you should watch the next day, and wrapping up whatever news has happened there. We are doing recruiting composite rankings – that should come out a little after the season. My draft board should be up later this week. And then if you for some reason are interested in specifically Duke athletics, at dukechronicle.com I am beat writer for our women's basketball team, as well as softball, baseball, and women’s soccer. 

Jessica: Awesome. Thanks so much for being on Burn It All Down, Em.

Em: Thanks a lot for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here. 

Jessica: Burn It All Down is produced by Tressa Versteeg. Shelby Weldon does our website, episode transcripts and social media. You can find Burn It All Down on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. If you want to subscribe – and you should – you can do that wherever you listened to podcasts. For more information about the show, check out burnitalldownpod.com. You can also go shopping at our Bonfire store to get some merch. As always, an evergreen thank you to our patrons for your support. It means the world. On behalf of all of us, burn on and not out.